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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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