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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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