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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
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Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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