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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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