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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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