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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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