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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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