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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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