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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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