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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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