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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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