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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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