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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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