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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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