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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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