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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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