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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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