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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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