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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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