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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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