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Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
 Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—Russia began to manipulate Europe’s energy markets by trimming gas shipments and emptying gas storage facilities on the continent. To fill the supply gaps, Europe ramped up its purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG). A global bidding war for LNG ensued. Wealthy European nations vied with buyers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and developing nations for a limited LNG supply, and prices soared to previously unimaginable highs.
The gas price contagion quickly spread to American shores. U.S. LNG exporters bought all the gas they could handle, hoping to reap big profits by selling U.S. gas to overheated global markets. Surging exports, in turn, shortchanged U.S. supplies; domestic gas stockpiles fell to multi-year lows, and wholesale gas prices rocketed to their highest levels in more than a decade.
Those price spikes were largely passed on to U.S. consumers. According to the Energy Information Administration, total U.S. spending on natural gas soared to $269 billion in 2022, up from $150 billion in 2019, the last “normal” year before COVID-19 and Russia roiled U.S. gas markets.
It’s impossible to know exactly how much U.S. consumers would have spent if Russia hadn’t upended global gas markets. But there’s absolutely no doubt that surging LNG exports helped trigger the surge in U.S. gas prices.
Between 2020 and 2022, total gas production in the U.S. increased by 7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), while domestic consumption went up by just 4.6 Bcf/d. With domestic production rising faster than consumption, you might expect prices to stay muted. But exports changed the equation. LNG exports went up by 4 Bcf/d over the same period, and pipeline exports rose by 0.4 Bcf/d. All told, combining growth in bothdomestic consumption and exports, demand for U.S. gas went up about 2 Bcf/d faster than production.
With demand outpacing supply, prices soared. But if exports had grown more slowly, the U.S. gas market would have been in better balance, and prices would have been closer to—or perhaps less than—their long-term average.
In the years before Russia upended the U.S. gas market, the average monthly wholesale price for gas hovered at just over $3 per million metric British thermal units (MMBtu). FromSeptember 2021 through December 2022—the years of Russian-induced gas market chaos—prices nearly doubled their long-term average.
Higher wholesale prices fueled inflation for all U.S. consumers, including families heating their homes, businesses, and industries. It became more expensive to keep the lights on, as well. Gas-dependent electric utilities saw their costs rise, and many passed the increased costs to their customers. Some people saw the price increases directly in their utility bills, but much was hidden in the overall increase in prices for goods and services.
If domestic gas prices had remained at their long-term average, U.S. consumers would have spent roughly $111 billion less on wholesale natural gas purchases from September 2021 through December 2022. Or, said differently, the Russia-induced price spikes cost U.S. households and gas buyers $111 billion, but led to a $111 billion windfall for the gas industry.
The transfer of wealth from gas consumers to gas producers varied by sector. All told, homeowners and renters paid gas companies an additional $14 billion during the market havoc. Office buildings and other commercial users spent an additional $11 billion. U.S. industrial gas users transferred about $33 billion to oil and gas companies. And electric utilities paid a whopping $50 billion more for their fuel.
It’s high time for the consumer effects of LNG exports to receive the attention they deserve. After all, what’s happened before could happen again. When the circumstances are right—a cold snap in Asia, a pipeline explosion in Europe, unrest in the Middle East—overseas buyers will once again ramp up their demand for LNG and compete directly with U.S. consumers for a limited supply of U.S. gas. The more export capacity we have, the more likely it is that a gas supply disruption anywhere in the world will trigger a price spike here at home. It’s a twist on the old adage: When the world sneezes, the U.S. will catch cold.
Source: IEEFA
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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