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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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