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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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