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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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