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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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