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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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