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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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