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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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