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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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