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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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