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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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