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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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