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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
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Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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