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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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