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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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