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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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