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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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