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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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