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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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