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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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