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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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