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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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