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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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