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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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