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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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