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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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