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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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