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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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