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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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