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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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