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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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