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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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