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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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