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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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