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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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